This article constitutes a continuation of the analysis initiated in the first part of the study “EncroChat, Sky ECC and Regulation (EU) 2023/1543: Towards a New Standard of Digital Evidence (I)”. The first part of this study examined the emergence of EncroChat and Sky ECC evidence in European criminal proceedings, focusing on the factual background of the Sky ECC investigations, the role of AI-assisted investigative techniques, the operation of mutual recognition mechanisms, and the evolving jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights, particularly the case M.N. v. France. It further analysed the challenges of the existing legal framework and the adoption of Regulation (EU) 2023/1543 on electronic evidence (Turanjanin, 2025).
Application of Bayes’ theorem in assessing recidivism risk in a serial rapist: a case study
Valentina Baić,
Milan Oljača, Marija Tasić
pp: 31-42
The assessment of recidivism risk among sexual offenders represents one of the most challenging issues in criminological and forensic practice, particularly in cases involving multiple repeat offenders, where available data are often fragmentary and the degree of uncertainty is high. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of Bayes’ theorem in the analysis of criminal behaviour and in the formalised probabilistic assessment of the risk of rape reoffending through a case study of a serial rapist sentenced to a long-term term of imprisonment. The study is grounded in a Bayesian inferential framework, in which the recidivism hypothesis is operationalised as a binary outcome: the reoccurrence of rape within a three-year period following release (2029–2032). The individualised baseline probability (empirical prior) was estimated using a beta–binomial Bayesian model based on the offender’s criminal history, due to the absence of domestic longitudinal recidivism rates for the specified time horizon. The evidence used for Bayesian updating comprised operationalised risk indicators, including repeated rape following previous releases, escalation of violence, the presence of antisocial personality disorder, impulsivity, and stable modus operandi patterns. Additional empirical data from a domestic study on rape recidivism were used to contextualise the findings. The results of the Bayesian analysis indicate that the posterior probability of recidivism within the three-year period remains exceptionally high (≈0.97–0.99), even under conservative assumptions regarding evidential strength. The findings suggest that the potential protective effects of age and long-term imprisonment, even when considered under a conservative scenario, do not outweigh the strong pattern of prior behaviour and the clinical-behavioural risk factors. In conclusion, the paper demonstrates that Bayes’ theorem constitutes a methodologically transparent and practically applicable framework for individualised probabilistic reasoning in forensic risk assessment.
Historical development of international criminal courts
Darko Radulović,
pp: 43-66
This paper deals with the historical development of international criminal courts. The need for the establishment of an international criminal court has always been tied to armed conflicts and wars in which the most severe crimes had been committed - and the entire international community would be interested in the trials - so international justice would not be served if the adjudication was carried out by national courts. Beside a short introduction, the work is divided into four parts. The first part covers the period before World War Two, the second encompasses the period after World War Two, where the emphasis is put on the Nuremberg and Tokyo ad hoc tribunals, the third part is dedicated to the International Tribunal for the Prosecution of Persons Responsible for Serious Violations of International Humanitarian Law Committed in the Territory of the Former Yugoslavia (the Hague Tribunal) and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, whereas the fourth part addresses the permanent International Criminal Court. The establishment of the permanent International Criminal Court is undoubtedly one of the most significant events in the history of international criminal law. The creation of the last global institution of the 20th century implied at last the materialisation of the almost hundred-year-old idea of the establishment of a supernational court within whose jurisdiction would be the most severe international crimes.
The Role of Private Security in Crime Prevention
Jana М. Marković,
pp: 67-82
Contemporary security risks have led to the need for additional capacities that would support traditional institutions of formal control, primarily the police. In this context, the private security sector has assumed a significant role, not only in the protection of people and property, but also in proactive measures aimed at crime prevention in various social environments such as public spaces. For a long time, the central place in crime prevention was held by the police as a traditional, specialized subject of formal social control. However, numerous challenges faced by the public sector, including bureaucratization, an increase in crime, limited capacities, the burden of tasks, and high costs, contributed to the expansion of the role of private entities in the protection of people and property, i.e., control of criminal behavior, and led to a process that is often called 'privatization of security' in the literature, in which private entities take over tasks that traditionally belonged to public institutions. The paper starts from the assumption that private security actively contributes to the preservation of public security and investigates its evolving and increasingly complex role in crime prevention. The primary goal of the paper is to point out the significant role of private security in crime prevention, as well as to identify and interpret the key areas through which this role is realized in practice.
From admissibility to contestability: Structural opacity, encrypted-platform evidence, and the limits of adversarial review
Janko Munjić,
pp: 83-102
Digital evidence from encrypted platforms such as EncroChat and Sky ECC is increasingly treated as formally admissible across multiple jurisdictions, yet core questions of provenance, integrity, and attribution remain structurally resistant to adversarial testing. Existing scholarship has mapped the doctrinal and cooperation routes through which such datasets enter domestic proceedings, but has not sufficiently operationalised the conditions under which they remain genuinely contestable once admitted. This paper addresses that gap through a doctrinal analysis of selected EU, ECtHR, and domestic case law, combined with a normative analysis of Serbian criminal procedure and recent regional scholarship on digital evidence. It argues that structural opacity is sustained by cross-border procedural architecture, confidentiality constraints, and restrained legality review under mutual recognition, and that formal admissibility cannot by itself secure fair evidential use where the defence cannot test method-relevant premises. The paper makes three original contributions. First, it proposes a minimal contestability test structured around provenance, integrity, and attribution, together with a staged verification package designed to function under persistent secrecy. Second, it develops a tiered remedial model linking failed contestability to calibrated procedural consequences, from reduced weight and mandatory corroboration to exclusion where the material is sole or decisive. Third, it maps contestability onto the Serbian Criminal Procedure Code and shows how existing procedural levers can operationalise the framework without legislative change. The paper further argues that the EU AI Act is relevant only as an external traceability benchmark for algorithmically processed investigative outputs, but not as a direct source of evidentiary law.
The Strasbourg Standards of Mass Surveillance of Communications
Miloš Biberdžić,
pp: 103-123
This paper examines the standards governing mass surveillance of communications under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), as developed in the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). It aims to identify, analyse, and systematise the Strasbourg standards binding the Contracting States in regulating mass surveillance of communications under the ECHR. The central research question is whether the Strasbourg case law provides a coherent and operational framework capable of reconciling national security imperatives with the effective protection of fundamental rights and freedoms. The analysis proceeds from doctrinal scholarship on mass surveillance, through an interpretative reading of the Convention, to a systematic assessment of the ECtHR’s jurisprudence, with cases selected for their role in shaping the scope, limits, and safeguards of bulk interception. The paper demonstrates that, under the ECHR, the ECtHR permits mass surveillance only conditionally and subject to strict safeguards. The analysis identifies five cumulative Strasbourg standards, articulated through corresponding safeguards, that structure the assessment of mass surveillance under the European Convention on Human Rights: legality, independent oversight, data protection safeguards, proportionality, and effective remedies. Rather than operating as isolated requirements, these standards function as interdependent elements of a coherent framework.
Prikazi
Baranowska, G. & Kolaković-Bojović, M. (2025) Enforced Disappearances: On Universal Responses to a Worldwide Phenomenon. Cambridge University Press
Marina Matić Bošković,
pp: 125-128
