Individualna stopa zločina kao faktor predikcije penalnog recidivizma
Author/s: Bogićević, Dragana, Popović-Ćitić, Branislava
Pages: 79-94
UDK: 343.95:159.97
159.923.33-058.53
343.91-051-025.32
DOI: https://doi.org/10.47152/rkkp.63.2.4
Abstract: Individualna stopa zločina odražava učestalost činjenja krivičnih dela aktivnih prestupnika. Istraživanjima kriminalne karijere izdvojena je kao jedna od ključnih dimenzija koja omogućava bolje razumevanje individualnog kriminalnog ponašanja. Cilj ovog rada je da ukaže na značaj ispitivanja individualne stope zločina prilikom utvrđivanja rizika za penalni recidivizam. Dostupna istraživanja pokazuju da je stopa individualnog zločina varijabilna, te da zavisi od niza faktora među kojima se izdvajaju pol, uzrast prestupnika, tip kriminaliteta i uzrast na kome započinje kriminalna karijera. Studijama kriminalne karijere uočena je mala grupe prestupnika koja tokom kriminalne karijere izvršava krivična dela u visokim frekvencijama (hronični ili perzistentni prestupnici), što je podstaklo razmatranje mogućnosti za prospektivnu identifikaciju takvih delinkvenata. Ipak, nalazi pokazuju da dosadašnje metode identifikacije hroničnih prestupnika nisu u dovoljnoj meri pouzdane, te da se ne mogu uzeti u obzir pilikom procene rizika (penalnog) recidivizma. Ukoliko se uvaži činjenica da je najbolji pokazatelj budućeg kriminalnog ponašanja prethodno kriminalno ponašanje, jasno je kako je značajno adekvatno proceniti i predvideti individualnu stopu zločina kako sa aspekta primene odgovarajućeg tretmana unutar zatvora, tako i za prevenciju penalnog recidivizma.
Keywords: individualna stopa zločina, frekvencija, kriminalna karijera, penalni recidivizam
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